Expected Threat(xT)

In the world of Football Analytics/Metrics there are many advanced stats such as xG(Expected Goals) and xA(Expected Assists) just to name some. A relatively new analytic is emerging-Expected Threat. According to driblab, Expected Threat measures how the probability of scoring a goal changes before the action and after it, giving value to actions that lead your team towards more dangerous situations. Essentially it measures the value of a pass/dribble/carry towards a teams chances of scoring a goal. xT can have a positive and negative value.



The Athletic
           

The grid above developed by the Atheltic can be used to calculate the xT of a pass/dribble/carry from one zone to the other. So a successful pass from a region of 0.004 to a region of 0.32 would have an xT of 0.316, this means that that pass would increase the chances of the team scoring by 31%! A backpass or a carry back would result in a negative percent value as well. Lets look at another example.


Modric's beautiful outside of the boot pass here to Rodrygo had an approximate xT value of 0.118. This pass increased Madrid's chances of scoring by 11.8% which just shows how good the pass was.






In the data above we can see that Vinicius Jr. is such an important ball progressor for Madrid and his improvement this season can not go unnoticed. He is miles ahead of everybody in terms of xT from carries.








Despite most people criticising Messi in the 2021/22 season with PSG, he still remained an elite ball progressor both from carries and passes.

Trent had the highest xT in the top 5 leagues this season most of that coming from passes(crosses) while his team-mate Salah had the 2nd highest. Shows how valuable both are for this Liverpool team.

xT is a very useful metric and its use will truly change football analysis.





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